Bath Rugby vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% ToulonToulon 61.8%draw 2.5%35.7% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 50.3%draw 2.5%47.2% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Toulon and 25 Bath Rugby, half of them between 3 Toulon and 14 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 5 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Bath Rugby 1768, Toulon 1663 — 105 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–6Toulon7 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Toulon by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Toulon 45–34 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2023-01-15 | Bath Rugby 23–35 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2022-12-17 | Toulon 29–7 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2017-12-16 | Bath Rugby 26–21 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2017-12-09 | Toulon 24–20 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.