Bath Rugby vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 75.7%draw 2.5%21.8% ToulonToulon 38.7%draw 2.5%58.8% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 68.3%draw 2.5%29.2% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Toulon and 32 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 8 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Toulon.
Bath Rugby 1766, Toulon 1435 — 331 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–6Toulon7 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Toulon by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Toulon 45–34 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2023-01-15 | Bath Rugby 23–35 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2022-12-17 | Toulon 29–7 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2017-12-16 | Bath Rugby 26–21 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2017-12-09 | Toulon 24–20 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.