Bath Rugby vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 88.2%draw 2.5%9.3% ZebreZebre 20.6%draw 2.5%76.9% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 83.0%draw 2.5%14.5% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 37 Bath Rugby, half of them between 4 Bath Rugby and 25 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 13 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Bath Rugby 1768, Zebre 1071 — 697 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–0Zebre1 meeting, 2021 to 2021 · Bath Rugby by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-02 | Zebre 27–35 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.