Bayonne vs Benetton Treviso
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 78.4%draw 2.5%19.1% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 56.1%draw 2.5%41.4% BayonneBayonne 60.4%draw 2.5%37.1% Benetton TrevisoEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Benetton Treviso, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Benetton Treviso and 33 Bayonne, half of them between 1 Bayonne and 21 Bayonne, with the middle run at 10 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Benetton Treviso.
Bayonne 1557, Benetton Treviso 1413 — 144 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne0–0–4Benetton Treviso4 meetings, 2016 to 2023 · Benetton Treviso by 18.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-14 | Benetton Treviso 26–7 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2022-12-17 | Bayonne 7–45 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2016-12-17 | Benetton Treviso 21–17 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2016-12-09 | Bayonne 15–28 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.