Bayonne vs Benetton Treviso
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 67.3%draw 2.5%30.2% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Benetton Treviso and 24 Bayonne, with the middle run at 1 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Benetton Treviso.
Bayonne 1413, Benetton Treviso 1478 — 64 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
4 meetings, 2016 to 2023 · Benetton Treviso by 18.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-14 | Benetton Treviso 26–7 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2022-12-17 | Bayonne 7–45 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2016-12-17 | Benetton Treviso 21–17 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2016-12-09 | Bayonne 15–28 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.