Bayonne vs Black Lion
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Black Lion and 38 Bayonne, with the middle run at 11 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Black Lion.
Bayonne 1413, Black Lion 986 — 428 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Bayonne by 25.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Black Lion 16–41 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.