Bayonne vs Bordeaux Begles
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles host Bayonne on Saturday 31 October at Stade Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux, so Bordeaux Begles are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bayonne 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% BayonneBayonne 33.5%draw 2.5%64.0% Bordeaux BeglesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Bayonne, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Bayonne and 33 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 2 Bordeaux Begles and 21 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 10 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Bayonne.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Bayonne 1557 — 268 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne3–0–11Bordeaux Begles14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 11.1 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Bordeaux Begles by 10.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Bayonne 38–40 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-10-25 | Bordeaux Begles 41–12 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2025-02-15 | Bayonne 36–32 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-10-05 | Bordeaux Begles 30–27 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-04-27 | Bayonne 15–34 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.