Bayonne vs Bordeaux Begles
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 81.8%draw 2.5%15.7% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Bordeaux Begles and 13 Bayonne, with the middle run at 5 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Bordeaux Begles.
Bayonne 1413, Bordeaux Begles 1913 — 500 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 10.3 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Bordeaux Begles by 10.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Bayonne 38–40 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-10-25 | Bordeaux Begles 41–12 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2025-02-15 | Bayonne 36–32 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-10-05 | Bordeaux Begles 30–27 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-04-27 | Bayonne 15–34 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.