Bayonne vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Castres Olympique and 16 Bayonne, with the middle run at 1 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Castres Olympique.
Bayonne 1413, Castres Olympique 1485 — 71 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
12 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Castres Olympique by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Bayonne 10–13 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-09-20 | Castres Olympique 48–17 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-12-28 | Bayonne 33–12 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-06-08 | Bayonne 17–28 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2023-09-02 | Castres Olympique 37–0 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.