Bayonne vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 74.6%draw 2.5%22.9% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 64.6%draw 2.5%32.9% BayonneBayonne 54.5%draw 2.5%43.0% Castres OlympiqueEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Castres Olympique, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Castres Olympique and 28 Bayonne, half of them between level and 17 Bayonne, with the middle run at 7 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Castres Olympique.
Bayonne 1557, Castres Olympique 1456 — 101 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne4–1–9Castres Olympique14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 7.6 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Castres Olympique by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Bayonne 10–13 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-09-20 | Castres Olympique 48–17 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-05-31 | Castres Olympique 33–3 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-12-28 | Bayonne 33–12 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-06-08 | Bayonne 17–28 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.