Bayonne vs Cheetahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% CheetahsCheetahs 42.7%draw 2.5%54.8% BayonneBayonne 68.6%draw 2.5%28.9% CheetahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Cheetahs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Cheetahs and 37 Bayonne, half of them between 2 Bayonne and 24 Bayonne, with the middle run at 12 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Cheetahs.
Bayonne 1557, Cheetahs 1270 — 287 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne1–0–0Cheetahs1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Bayonne by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Bayonne 29–27 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.