Bayonne vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Clermont Auvergne 79.0%draw 2.5%18.5% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Clermont Auvergne and 14 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Clermont Auvergne.
Bayonne 1413, Clermont Auvergne 1729 — 315 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
14 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 4.7 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Clermont Auvergne by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Bayonne 44–17 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-06-13 | Bayonne 20–3 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-03-02 | Bayonne 31–18 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-09-21 | Clermont Auvergne 26–10 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-02-17 | Bayonne 21–13 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.