Bayonne vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 74.1%draw 2.5%23.4% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 63.0%draw 2.5%34.5% BayonneBayonne 52.7%draw 2.5%44.8% Clermont AuvergneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Clermont Auvergne, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Clermont Auvergne and 25 Bayonne, half of them between level and 15 Bayonne, with the middle run at 6 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Clermont Auvergne.
Bayonne 1557, Clermont Auvergne 1466 — 91 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne9–0–7Clermont Auvergne16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 4.4 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Bayonne by 2.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Bayonne 46–24 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2026-02-28 | Clermont Auvergne 38–15 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-10-18 | Bayonne 44–17 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-06-13 | Bayonne 20–3 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-03-02 | Bayonne 31–18 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.