Bayonne vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Edinburgh and 15 Bayonne, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Edinburgh.
Bayonne 1413, Edinburgh 1496 — 83 points, favouring Edinburgh
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
2 meetings, 2024 to 2024 · Edinburgh by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-13 | Edinburgh 52–12 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-04-06 | Edinburgh 33–15 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.