Bayonne vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 65.2%draw 2.5%32.3% EdinburghEdinburgh 64.7%draw 2.5%32.8% BayonneBayonne 49.1%draw 2.5%48.4% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Edinburgh and 27 Bayonne, half of them between 2 Edinburgh and 16 Bayonne, with the middle run at 5 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Bayonne 1557, Edinburgh 1528 — 29 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne0–0–2Edinburgh2 meetings, 2024 to 2024 · Edinburgh by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-13 | Edinburgh 52–12 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-04-06 | Edinburgh 33–15 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.