Bayonne vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 41.0%draw 2.5%56.5% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 80.2%draw 2.5%17.3% BayonneBayonne 26.4%draw 2.5%71.1% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Glasgow Warriors, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Glasgow Warriors and 16 Bayonne, half of them between 9 Glasgow Warriors and 6 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Glasgow Warriors.
Bayonne 1557, Glasgow Warriors 1949 — 392 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne0–0–1Glasgow Warriors1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-15 | Bayonne 11–12 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.