Bayonne vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 52.3%draw 2.5%45.2% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 71.3%draw 2.5%26.2% BayonneBayonne 38.9%draw 2.5%58.6% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Gloucester Rugby and 21 Bayonne, half of them between 6 Gloucester Rugby and 11 Bayonne, with the middle run at 1 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Bayonne 1557, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 127 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne1–0–2Gloucester Rugby3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Gloucester Rugby by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Bayonne 55–17 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2017-01-21 | Gloucester Rugby 64–19 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2016-10-15 | Bayonne 27–47 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.