Bayonne vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 72.9%draw 2.5%24.6% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Gloucester Rugby and 15 Bayonne, with the middle run at 1 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Bayonne 1413, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 107 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Gloucester Rugby by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Bayonne 55–17 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2017-01-21 | Gloucester Rugby 64–19 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2016-10-15 | Bayonne 27–47 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.