Bayonne vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 61.1%draw 2.5%36.4% HarlequinsHarlequins 63.0%draw 2.5%34.5% BayonneBayonne 47.8%draw 2.5%49.7% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Harlequins and 25 Bayonne, half of them between 4 Harlequins and 14 Bayonne, with the middle run at 4 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Bayonne 1557, Harlequins 1542 — 15 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne0–0–1Harlequins1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Harlequins by 54.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Harlequins 68–14 Bayonne | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.