Bayonne vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 79.6%draw 2.5%17.9% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Harlequins and 15 Bayonne, with the middle run at 1 Harlequins.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Harlequins.
Bayonne 1413, Harlequins 1668 — 254 points, favouring Harlequins
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Harlequins by 54.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Harlequins 68–14 Bayonne | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.