Bayonne vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle host Bayonne on Sunday 8 November at Stade Marcel-Deflandre, La Rochelle, so La Rochelle are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bayonne 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% La RochelleLa Rochelle 80.7%draw 2.5%16.8% BayonneBayonne 33.7%draw 2.5%63.8% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Bayonne, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Bayonne and 32 La Rochelle, half of them between 2 La Rochelle and 20 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 9 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-25 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Bayonne.
La Rochelle 1820, Bayonne 1557 — 263 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne7–0–10La Rochelle17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 4.9 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · La Rochelle by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Bayonne 26–15 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Reale Arena |
| 2025-12-20 | La Rochelle 49–17 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-04-19 | La Rochelle 29–28 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-10-12 | Bayonne 37–7 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Reale Arena |
| 2024-03-23 | Bayonne 13–12 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.