Bayonne vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 76.3%draw 2.5%21.2% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 La Rochelle and 13 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours La Rochelle.
Bayonne 1413, La Rochelle 1748 — 335 points, favouring La Rochelle
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 4.9 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · La Rochelle by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Bayonne 26–15 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Reale Arena |
| 2025-12-20 | La Rochelle 49–17 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-04-19 | La Rochelle 29–28 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-10-12 | Bayonne 37–7 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Reale Arena |
| 2024-03-23 | Bayonne 13–12 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.