Bayonne vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 82.9%draw 2.5%14.6% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Leicester Tigers and 13 Bayonne, with the middle run at 5 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Bayonne 1413, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 427 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
2 meetings, 2020 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 25.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Leicester Tigers 57–14 Bayonne | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2020-12-19 | Bayonne 20–28 Leicester Tigers | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.