Bayonne vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leinster 87.9%draw 2.5%9.6% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 Leinster and 10 Bayonne, with the middle run at 7 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Leinster.
Bayonne 1413, Leinster 1912 — 499 points, favouring Leinster
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Leinster by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Bayonne 13–22 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.