Bayonne vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 39.0%draw 2.5%58.5% LeinsterLeinster 79.6%draw 2.5%17.9% BayonneBayonne 27.7%draw 2.5%69.8% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Leinster and 16 Bayonne, half of them between 10 Leinster and 6 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Bayonne 1557, Leinster 1915 — 358 points, favouring Leinster
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne0–0–1Leinster1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Leinster by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Bayonne 13–22 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.