Bayonne vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne host Lyon on Saturday 24 October at Stade Jean Dauger, Bayonne, so Bayonne are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bayonne 72.9%draw 2.5%24.6% LyonLyon 65.1%draw 2.5%32.4% BayonneBayonne 47.2%draw 2.5%50.3% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Lyon and 23 Bayonne, half of them between level and 14 Bayonne, with the middle run at 6 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Bayonne 1557, Lyon 1487 — 70 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne6–1–7Lyon14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Lyon by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Lyon by 4.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Lyon 42–35 Bayonne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-11-29 | Bayonne 22–20 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-03-29 | Bayonne 28–14 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-10-26 | Lyon 38–49 Bayonne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-03-02 | Bayonne 39–10 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.