Bayonne vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Lyon 67.8%draw 2.5%29.7% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Lyon and 17 Bayonne, with the middle run at 1 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Lyon.
Bayonne 1413, Lyon 1429 — 16 points, favouring Lyon
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Lyon by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Lyon by 4.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Lyon 42–35 Bayonne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-11-29 | Bayonne 22–20 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-03-29 | Bayonne 28–14 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-10-26 | Lyon 38–49 Bayonne | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-03-02 | Bayonne 39–10 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.