Bayonne vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 41.6%draw 2.5%55.9% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 84.0%draw 2.5%13.5% BayonneBayonne 25.5%draw 2.5%72.0% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Montpellier Herault and 15 Bayonne, half of them between 11 Montpellier Herault and 7 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Bayonne 1557, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 415 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne6–0–9Montpellier Herault15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 9.1 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Montpellier Herault by 7.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | Montpellier Herault 62–22 Bayonne | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-09-13 | Bayonne 26–23 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-01-04 | Montpellier Herault 42–10 Bayonne | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-09-28 | Bayonne 28–27 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-02-24 | Montpellier Herault 28–23 Bayonne | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.