Bayonne vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 50.1%draw 2.5%47.4% MunsterMunster 70.9%draw 2.5%26.6% BayonneBayonne 39.8%draw 2.5%57.7% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Munster and 22 Bayonne, half of them between 6 Munster and 11 Bayonne, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Bayonne 1557, Munster 1728 — 171 points, favouring Munster
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne0–1–0Munster1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Munster 17–17 Bayonne | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.