Bayonne vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 40.0%draw 2.5%57.5% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 79.9%draw 2.5%17.6% BayonneBayonne 26.3%draw 2.5%71.2% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Northampton Saints and 16 Bayonne, half of them between 10 Northampton Saints and 6 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Bayonne 1557, Northampton Saints 1957 — 400 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne0–0–1Northampton Saints1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Northampton Saints by 47.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-12 | Northampton Saints 61–14 Bayonne | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.