Bayonne vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Pau 75.8%draw 2.5%21.7% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Pau and 13 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Pau.
Bayonne 1413, Pau 1640 — 227 points, favouring Pau
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
13 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Pau by 7.5 on average
Last 10: 2–1–7 · Pau by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Bayonne 22–54 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-10-11 | Pau 47–24 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-04-26 | Bayonne 27–22 Pau | Top 14 | Reale Arena |
| 2024-09-14 | Pau 51–29 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-03-09 | Pau 42–40 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.