Bayonne vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 55.3%draw 2.5%42.2% PauPau 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% BayonneBayonne 34.7%draw 2.5%62.8% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Pau and 22 Bayonne, half of them between 6 Pau and 11 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Bayonne 1557, Pau 1818 — 261 points, favouring Pau
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne2–2–10Pau14 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Pau by 10.0 on average
Last 10: 2–1–7 · Pau by 11.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Pau 70–28 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2026-04-18 | Bayonne 22–54 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-10-11 | Pau 47–24 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-04-26 | Bayonne 27–22 Pau | Top 14 | Reale Arena |
| 2024-09-14 | Pau 51–29 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.