Bayonne vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Perpignan and 29 Bayonne, with the middle run at 5 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Perpignan.
Bayonne 1413, Perpignan 1346 — 68 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bayonne by 2.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Bayonne 52–7 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-09-06 | Perpignan 19–26 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-01-25 | Perpignan 16–11 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-09-07 | Bayonne 21–19 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-05-18 | Bayonne 23–20 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.