Bayonne vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 81.4%draw 2.5%16.1% PerpignanPerpignan 59.7%draw 2.5%37.8% BayonneBayonne 63.4%draw 2.5%34.1% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Perpignan and 34 Bayonne, half of them between 2 Bayonne and 22 Bayonne, with the middle run at 10 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-14 on a tight afternoon and 34-24 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Bayonne 1557, Perpignan 1424 — 133 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne5–0–3Perpignan8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bayonne by 2.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Bayonne 52–7 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-09-06 | Perpignan 19–26 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-01-25 | Perpignan 16–11 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-09-07 | Bayonne 21–19 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-05-18 | Bayonne 23–20 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.