Bayonne vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 63.5%draw 2.5%34.0% Racing 92Racing 92 72.5%draw 2.5%25.0% BayonneBayonne 43.2%draw 2.5%54.3% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Racing 92 and 24 Bayonne, half of them between 4 Racing 92 and 13 Bayonne, with the middle run at 4 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Bayonne 1557, Racing 92 1632 — 75 points, favouring Racing 92
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne7–1–7Racing 9215 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 6.3 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · Racing 92 by 1.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Racing 92 17–20 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2026-02-14 | Bayonne 36–41 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-11-22 | Racing 92 47–27 Bayonne | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-05-10 | Racing 92 24–24 Bayonne | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-10-19 | Bayonne 32–15 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.