Bayonne vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 77.6%draw 2.5%19.9% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Racing 92 and 13 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Racing 92.
Bayonne 1413, Racing 92 1707 — 294 points, favouring Racing 92
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 6.9 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · Racing 92 by 4.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Bayonne 36–41 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-11-22 | Racing 92 47–27 Bayonne | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-05-10 | Racing 92 24–24 Bayonne | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-10-19 | Bayonne 32–15 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-05-11 | Racing 92 28–37 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.