Bayonne vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 76.3%draw 2.5%21.2% ScarletsScarlets 45.6%draw 2.5%51.9% BayonneBayonne 64.4%draw 2.5%33.1% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Scarlets and 31 Bayonne, half of them between 1 Bayonne and 19 Bayonne, with the middle run at 8 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Bayonne 1557, Scarlets 1273 — 284 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne1–0–4Scarlets5 meetings, 2019 to 2024 · Scarlets by 18.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Bayonne 17–16 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2023-01-21 | Bayonne 7–20 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2022-12-11 | Scarlets 39–7 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-12-14 | Scarlets 46–5 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-12-07 | Bayonne 11–19 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.