Bayonne vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Scarlets 61.4%draw 2.5%36.1% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Scarlets and 24 Bayonne, with the middle run at 4 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Scarlets.
Bayonne 1413, Scarlets 1334 — 79 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
5 meetings, 2019 to 2024 · Scarlets by 18.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Bayonne 17–16 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2023-01-21 | Bayonne 7–20 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2022-12-11 | Scarlets 39–7 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-12-14 | Scarlets 46–5 Bayonne | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-12-07 | Bayonne 11–19 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Dauger |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.