Bayonne vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Francais Paris 77.4%draw 2.5%20.1% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Stade Francais Paris and 14 Bayonne, with the middle run at 3 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Bayonne 1413, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 362 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 3.1 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Stade Francais Paris by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Stade Francais Paris 38–21 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-12-27 | Bayonne 35–34 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-03-22 | Stade Francais Paris 31–27 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-12-01 | Bayonne 21–13 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-04-20 | Stade Francais Paris 28–24 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.