Bayonne vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 56.4%draw 2.5%41.1% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 77.4%draw 2.5%20.1% BayonneBayonne 39.6%draw 2.5%57.9% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Francais Paris and 23 Bayonne, half of them between 6 Stade Francais Paris and 12 Bayonne, with the middle run at 2 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Bayonne 1557, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 174 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne8–0–8Stade Francais Paris16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 2.7 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Stade Francais Paris by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Bayonne 35–32 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2026-05-30 | Stade Francais Paris 38–21 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-12-27 | Bayonne 35–34 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-03-22 | Stade Francais Paris 31–27 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-12-01 | Bayonne 21–13 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.