Bayonne vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Toulousain 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Stade Toulousain and 12 Bayonne, with the middle run at 4 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Bayonne 1413, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 450 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
15 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Stade Toulousain by 5.3 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Stade Toulousain by 2.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Bayonne 40–26 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-06-20 | Stade Toulousain 32–25 Bayonne | Top 14 | Groupama Stadium |
| 2025-02-22 | Stade Toulousain 41–6 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-11-03 | Bayonne 12–8 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-02-03 | Stade Toulousain 46–26 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.