Bayonne vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 44.0%draw 2.5%53.5% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 84.5%draw 2.5%13.0% BayonneBayonne 24.3%draw 2.5%73.2% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Stade Toulousain and 15 Bayonne, half of them between 10 Stade Toulousain and 6 Bayonne, with the middle run at 1 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Bayonne 1557, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 435 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne7–0–10Stade Toulousain17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 6.5 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Stade Toulousain by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Stade Toulousain 45–34 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2026-01-31 | Stade Toulousain 31–10 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-10-05 | Bayonne 40–26 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-06-20 | Stade Toulousain 32–25 Bayonne | Top 14 | Groupama Stadium |
| 2025-02-22 | Stade Toulousain 41–6 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.