Bayonne vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% ToulonToulon 74.7%draw 2.5%22.8% BayonneBayonne 45.1%draw 2.5%52.4% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Toulon and 23 Bayonne, half of them between 3 Toulon and 13 Bayonne, with the middle run at 4 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Bayonne 1557, Toulon 1663 — 106 points, favouring Toulon
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne7–0–10Toulon17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 12.4 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Toulon by 8.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Bayonne 27–26 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2026-04-25 | Toulon 52–26 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-09-28 | Bayonne 35–32 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-06-07 | Bayonne 18–10 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-11-23 | Toulon 39–19 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.