Bayonne vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Toulon 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% BayonneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Toulon and 17 Bayonne, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bayonne, negative favours Toulon.
Bayonne 1413, Toulon 1435 — 21 points, favouring Toulon
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 12.9 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Toulon by 9.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toulon 52–26 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-09-28 | Bayonne 35–32 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2025-06-07 | Bayonne 18–10 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-11-23 | Toulon 39–19 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2023-08-26 | Toulon 19–14 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.