Bayonne vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bayonne 82.7%draw 2.5%14.8% VannesVannes 50.3%draw 2.5%47.2% BayonneBayonne 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bayonne v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bayonne wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Vannes and 38 Bayonne, half of them between 3 Bayonne and 26 Bayonne, with the middle run at 12 Bayonne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-24 on an open one.
Why Bayonne are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bayonne winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bayonne, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Bayonne 1557, Vannes 1280 — 277 points, favouring Bayonne
Bayonne are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bayonne2–0–0Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Bayonne by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Bayonne 38–32 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Jean Dauger |
| 2024-12-21 | Vannes 21–27 Bayonne | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.