Benetton Treviso vs Bristol Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 36.0%draw 2.5%61.5% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 84.1%draw 2.5%13.4% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 23.9%draw 2.5%73.6% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Bristol Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Bristol Rugby and 15 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 11 Bristol Rugby and 5 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Bristol Rugby.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Bristol Rugby 1762 — 349 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–1Bristol Rugby1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Bristol Rugby by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | Bristol Rugby 35–29 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.