Benetton Treviso vs Bulls
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 31.4%draw 2.5%66.1% BullsBulls 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 23.9%draw 2.5%73.6% BullsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Bulls and 11 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Bulls.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Bulls 1769 — 291 points, favouring Bulls
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–6Bulls6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bulls by 15.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Bulls 45–19 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-10-25 | Benetton Treviso 15–17 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-06-08 | Bulls 30–23 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-05-18 | Bulls 56–35 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-10-21 | Benetton Treviso 22–44 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.