Benetton Treviso vs Cardiff Blues
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 50.7%draw 2.5%46.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 82.0%draw 2.5%15.5% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 32.3%draw 2.5%65.2% Cardiff BluesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Cardiff Blues, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Cardiff Blues and 19 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 7 Cardiff Blues and 9 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Cardiff Blues.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Cardiff Blues 1645 — 233 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso8–0–10Cardiff Blues18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Cardiff Blues by 4.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Cardiff Blues by 1.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Benetton Treviso 38–35 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2026-01-24 | Cardiff Blues 17–8 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-03-29 | Benetton Treviso 20–19 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-10-21 | Cardiff Blues 22–23 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2023-04-08 | Benetton Treviso 27–23 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.