Benetton Treviso vs Cardiff Blues
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 48.6%draw 2.5%48.9% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 73.3%draw 2.5%24.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 36.3%draw 2.5%61.2% Cardiff BluesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 Cardiff Blues and 11 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Cardiff Blues.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Cardiff Blues 1573 — 96 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso8–0–9Cardiff Blues17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Cardiff Blues by 4.9 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Cardiff Blues by 1.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Benetton Treviso 38–35 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2026-01-24 | Cardiff Blues 17–8 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-03-29 | Benetton Treviso 20–19 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-10-21 | Cardiff Blues 22–23 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2023-04-08 | Benetton Treviso 27–23 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.