Benetton Treviso vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 65.8%draw 2.5%31.7% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 42.6%draw 2.5%54.9% Castres OlympiqueEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Castres Olympique and 23 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 2 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Castres Olympique.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Castres Olympique 1485 — 7 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–1Castres Olympique1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Castres Olympique by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Castres Olympique 39–37 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.