Benetton Treviso vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 72.3%draw 2.5%25.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 41.6%draw 2.5%55.9% Castres OlympiqueEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Castres Olympique, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Castres Olympique and 24 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 5 Castres Olympique and 13 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Castres Olympique.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Castres Olympique 1456 — 43 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–2Castres Olympique2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Castres Olympique 18–9 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-04-05 | Castres Olympique 39–37 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.