Benetton Treviso vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 36.2%draw 2.5%61.3% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 79.8%draw 2.5%17.7% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 26.7%draw 2.5%70.8% Clermont AuvergneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Clermont Auvergne and 14 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Clermont Auvergne.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Clermont Auvergne 1729 — 251 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–1Clermont Auvergne1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Clermont Auvergne by 28.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Clermont Auvergne 28–0 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.