Benetton Treviso vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 67.8%draw 2.5%29.7% DragonsDragons 54.3%draw 2.5%43.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Dragons and 33 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 7 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Dragons.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Dragons 1369 — 108 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso12–1–4Dragons17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Benetton Treviso by 9.2 on average
Last 10: 8–1–1 · Benetton Treviso by 17.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Benetton Treviso 74–21 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-10-19 | Dragons 21–31 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-04-20 | Benetton Treviso 36–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2022-10-09 | Benetton Treviso 34–14 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2022-01-28 | Dragons 13–13 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.