Benetton Treviso vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% DragonsDragons 61.9%draw 2.5%35.6% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 51.2%draw 2.5%46.3% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Dragons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Dragons and 25 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 3 Dragons and 14 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 5 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-15 on a tight afternoon and 30-25 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Dragons.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Dragons 1330 — 83 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso12–3–4Dragons19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Benetton Treviso by 8.2 on average
Last 10: 6–3–1 · Benetton Treviso by 11.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Benetton Treviso 19–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2026-02-28 | Dragons 15–15 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2026-01-10 | Benetton Treviso 74–21 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-10-19 | Dragons 21–31 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-04-20 | Benetton Treviso 36–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.