Benetton Treviso vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 42.9%draw 2.5%54.6% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 80.7%draw 2.5%16.8% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 30.2%draw 2.5%67.3% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Exeter Chiefs and 15 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 2 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 277 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–1Exeter Chiefs1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Benetton Treviso 41–44 Exeter Chiefs | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.