Benetton Treviso vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 37.7%draw 2.5%59.8% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 82.7%draw 2.5%14.8% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 25.5%draw 2.5%72.0% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Exeter Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Exeter Chiefs and 15 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 11 Exeter Chiefs and 5 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Exeter Chiefs.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Exeter Chiefs 1716 — 303 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–1Exeter Chiefs1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Benetton Treviso 41–44 Exeter Chiefs | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.