Benetton Treviso vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 36.4%draw 2.5%61.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 75.8%draw 2.5%21.7% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 28.7%draw 2.5%68.8% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Glasgow Warriors and 15 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 314 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso5–0–12Glasgow Warriors17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 10.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Glasgow Warriors by 7.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Glasgow Warriors 31–10 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-10-04 | Benetton Treviso 16–14 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2025-05-10 | Benetton Treviso 33–7 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-09-27 | Glasgow Warriors 42–10 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-03-02 | Benetton Treviso 9–19 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.