Benetton Treviso vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 49.2%draw 2.5%48.3% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 72.0%draw 2.5%25.5% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 37.0%draw 2.5%60.5% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Gloucester Rugby and 17 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 29-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 42 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–4Gloucester Rugby4 meetings, 2016 to 2024 · Gloucester Rugby by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-04 | Gloucester Rugby 40–23 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2021-12-17 | Gloucester Rugby 54–25 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2017-01-14 | Benetton Treviso 0–41 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Impianto Sportivo La Ghirada |
| 2016-10-22 | Gloucester Rugby 37–8 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.