Benetton Treviso vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 38.5%draw 2.5%59.0% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 80.2%draw 2.5%17.3% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 27.2%draw 2.5%70.3% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Gloucester Rugby and 15 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 11 Gloucester Rugby and 5 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 271 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–4Gloucester Rugby4 meetings, 2016 to 2024 · Gloucester Rugby by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-04 | Gloucester Rugby 40–23 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2021-12-17 | Gloucester Rugby 54–25 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2017-01-14 | Benetton Treviso 0–41 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Impianto Sportivo La Ghirada |
| 2016-10-22 | Gloucester Rugby 37–8 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.