Benetton Treviso vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 49.4%draw 2.5%48.1% HarlequinsHarlequins 75.3%draw 2.5%22.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 35.5%draw 2.5%62.0% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Harlequins and 17 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Harlequins.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Harlequins 1668 — 190 points, favouring Harlequins
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso1–0–1Harlequins2 meetings, 2018 to 2018 · Harlequins by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-15 | Harlequins 20–9 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2018-12-08 | Benetton Treviso 26–21 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.