Benetton Treviso vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 53.8%draw 2.5%43.7% HarlequinsHarlequins 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 35.7%draw 2.5%61.8% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Harlequins and 19 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 7 Harlequins and 10 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Harlequins 1542 — 129 points, favouring Harlequins
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso1–0–1Harlequins2 meetings, 2018 to 2018 · Harlequins by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-15 | Harlequins 20–9 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2018-12-08 | Benetton Treviso 26–21 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.