Benetton Treviso vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 39.5%draw 2.5%58.0% La RochelleLa Rochelle 84.0%draw 2.5%13.5% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 25.1%draw 2.5%72.4% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 La Rochelle and 16 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 11 La Rochelle and 6 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 2 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Benetton Treviso 1413, La Rochelle 1820 — 407 points, favouring La Rochelle
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso1–0–2La Rochelle3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · La Rochelle by 15.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Benetton Treviso 32–25 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2017-01-21 | La Rochelle 31–8 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2016-10-15 | Benetton Treviso 10–41 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.