Benetton Treviso vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 41.1%draw 2.5%56.4% La RochelleLa Rochelle 80.2%draw 2.5%17.3% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 28.9%draw 2.5%68.6% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 La Rochelle and 15 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 2 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours La Rochelle.
Benetton Treviso 1478, La Rochelle 1748 — 270 points, favouring La Rochelle
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso1–0–2La Rochelle3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · La Rochelle by 15.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Benetton Treviso 32–25 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2017-01-21 | La Rochelle 31–8 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2016-10-15 | Benetton Treviso 10–41 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.