Benetton Treviso vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 39.4%draw 2.5%58.1% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 85.9%draw 2.5%11.6% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 24.7%draw 2.5%72.8% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Leicester Tigers and 13 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 12 Leicester Tigers and 5 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 387 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–2Leicester Tigers2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Leicester Tigers by 36.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01-16 | Leicester Tigers 47–7 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2015-11-21 | Benetton Treviso 3–36 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.