Benetton Treviso vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 35.2%draw 2.5%62.3% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 81.3%draw 2.5%16.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 25.4%draw 2.5%72.1% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Leicester Tigers and 11 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 5 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 362 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–2Leicester Tigers2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Leicester Tigers by 36.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01-16 | Leicester Tigers 47–7 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2015-11-21 | Benetton Treviso 3–36 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.