Benetton Treviso vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 26.1%draw 2.5%71.4% LeinsterLeinster 87.6%draw 2.5%9.9% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 17.2%draw 2.5%80.3% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Leinster and 12 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 14 Leinster and level, with the middle run at 6 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Leinster 1915 — 502 points, favouring Leinster
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–1–15Leinster18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 18.7 on average
Last 10: 1–1–8 · Leinster by 18.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Benetton Treviso 29–26 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-10-05 | Benetton Treviso 5–35 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-02-17 | Leinster 47–18 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2022-09-23 | Leinster 42–10 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2022-03-05 | Benetton Treviso 17–61 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.