Benetton Treviso vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 23.5%draw 2.5%74.0% LeinsterLeinster 80.3%draw 2.5%17.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 20.1%draw 2.5%77.4% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Leinster and 11 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 6 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Leinster.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Leinster 1912 — 435 points, favouring Leinster
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–1–15Leinster18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 18.7 on average
Last 10: 1–1–8 · Leinster by 18.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Benetton Treviso 29–26 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-10-05 | Benetton Treviso 5–35 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-02-17 | Leinster 47–18 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2022-09-23 | Leinster 42–10 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2022-03-05 | Benetton Treviso 17–61 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.