Benetton Treviso vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 50.8%draw 2.5%46.7% LionsLions 80.2%draw 2.5%17.3% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 33.3%draw 2.5%64.2% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Lions, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Lions and 21 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 6 Lions and 10 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Lions 1664 — 251 points, favouring Lions
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso5–0–2Lions7 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Benetton Treviso by 6.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Lions 18–26 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
| 2025-10-11 | Benetton Treviso 41–15 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2025-04-19 | Lions 31–42 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-04-06 | Benetton Treviso 27–17 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-11-05 | Benetton Treviso 15–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.