Benetton Treviso vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 47.3%draw 2.5%50.2% LionsLions 75.4%draw 2.5%22.1% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Lions and 17 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Lions.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Lions 1678 — 201 points, favouring Lions
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso5–0–1Lions6 meetings, 2023 to 2025 · Benetton Treviso by 9.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Lions 18–26 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
| 2025-10-11 | Benetton Treviso 41–15 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2025-04-19 | Lions 31–42 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-04-06 | Benetton Treviso 27–17 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-11-05 | Benetton Treviso 15–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.