Benetton Treviso vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 57.0%draw 2.5%40.5% LyonLyon 61.4%draw 2.5%36.1% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 46.0%draw 2.5%51.5% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Lyon and 24 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 3 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Lyon.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Lyon 1429 — 49 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–0–2Lyon4 meetings, 2019 to 2026 · Lyon by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Lyon 19–38 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2022-01-21 | Lyon 25–10 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2019-12-14 | Benetton Treviso 25–22 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2019-12-07 | Lyon 28–0 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.