Benetton Treviso vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 53.4%draw 2.5%44.1% LyonLyon 73.3%draw 2.5%24.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 38.4%draw 2.5%59.1% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Lyon and 21 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 6 Lyon and 10 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Lyon 1487 — 74 points, favouring Lyon
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–0–2Lyon4 meetings, 2019 to 2026 · Lyon by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Lyon 19–38 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2022-01-21 | Lyon 25–10 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2019-12-14 | Benetton Treviso 25–22 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2019-12-07 | Lyon 28–0 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.