Benetton Treviso vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 31.1%draw 2.5%66.4% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 22.7%draw 2.5%74.8% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Montpellier Herault and 13 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 4 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 404 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso1–0–1Montpellier Herault2 meetings, 2021 to 2024 · Benetton Treviso by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-20 | Benetton Treviso 27–19 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2021-04-10 | Montpellier Herault 31–25 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.