Benetton Treviso vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 29.2%draw 2.5%68.3% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 87.2%draw 2.5%10.3% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 18.9%draw 2.5%78.6% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Montpellier Herault and 13 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 13 Montpellier Herault and 3 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 5 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 560 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso1–0–1Montpellier Herault2 meetings, 2021 to 2024 · Benetton Treviso by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-20 | Benetton Treviso 27–19 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2021-04-10 | Montpellier Herault 31–25 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.