Benetton Treviso vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 43.0%draw 2.5%54.5% MunsterMunster 85.1%draw 2.5%12.4% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 26.9%draw 2.5%70.6% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Munster and 15 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 10 Munster and 6 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Munster 1728 — 316 points, favouring Munster
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–1–16Munster17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Munster by 15.6 on average
Last 10: 0–1–9 · Munster by 13.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Benetton Treviso 15–45 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2025-05-16 | Munster 30–21 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2023-10-29 | Benetton Treviso 13–13 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-01-28 | Benetton Treviso 30–40 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2022-03-25 | Munster 51–22 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.