Benetton Treviso vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 42.1%draw 2.5%55.4% MunsterMunster 70.9%draw 2.5%26.6% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 34.1%draw 2.5%63.4% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Munster and 15 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Munster.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Munster 1670 — 193 points, favouring Munster
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–1–16Munster17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Munster by 15.6 on average
Last 10: 0–1–9 · Munster by 13.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Benetton Treviso 15–45 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2025-05-16 | Munster 30–21 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2023-10-29 | Benetton Treviso 13–13 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-01-28 | Benetton Treviso 30–40 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2022-03-25 | Munster 51–22 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.