Benetton Treviso vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 29.6%draw 2.5%67.9% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 83.8%draw 2.5%13.7% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 19.5%draw 2.5%78.0% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Northampton Saints and 13 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 13 Northampton Saints and 3 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 5 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-19 on a tight afternoon and 36-31 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Northampton Saints 1957 — 544 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–2Northampton Saints2 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Northampton Saints by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-12 | Northampton Saints 33–20 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2019-11-23 | Benetton Treviso 32–35 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.