Benetton Treviso vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 48.4%draw 2.5%49.1% Racing 92Racing 92 83.7%draw 2.5%13.8% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 30.5%draw 2.5%67.0% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Racing 92 and 15 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 9 Racing 92 and 7 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Racing 92 1632 — 219 points, favouring Racing 92
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Racing 92 are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Benetton Treviso are on 48.4%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–1Racing 921 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Racing 92 by 46.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-18 | Racing 92 53–7 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.