Benetton Treviso vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 46.1%draw 2.5%51.4% Racing 92Racing 92 74.3%draw 2.5%23.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Racing 92 and 14 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Racing 92.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Racing 92 1707 — 230 points, favouring Racing 92
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–1Racing 921 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Racing 92 by 46.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-18 | Racing 92 53–7 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.