Benetton Treviso vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 69.6%draw 2.5%27.9% ScarletsScarlets 59.2%draw 2.5%38.3% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 53.4%draw 2.5%44.1% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Scarlets and 23 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 3 Scarlets and 13 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 5 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 31-26 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Scarlets 1273 — 140 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso3–2–15Scarlets20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 7.0 on average
Last 10: 2–2–6 · Scarlets by 2.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Scarlets 27–26 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2026-01-30 | Benetton Treviso 20–20 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-09-21 | Benetton Treviso 20–20 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-03-23 | Scarlets 16–13 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-10-01 | Benetton Treviso 34–23 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.