Benetton Treviso vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 67.8%draw 2.5%29.7% ScarletsScarlets 55.3%draw 2.5%42.2% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 54.2%draw 2.5%43.3% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Scarlets and 27 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 5 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Scarlets.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Scarlets 1334 — 143 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso3–2–14Scarlets19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 7.3 on average
Last 10: 2–2–6 · Scarlets by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Benetton Treviso 20–20 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-09-21 | Benetton Treviso 20–20 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-03-23 | Scarlets 16–13 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-10-01 | Benetton Treviso 34–23 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2021-10-22 | Scarlets 34–28 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.