Benetton Treviso vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 43.5%draw 2.5%54.0% SharksSharks 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 33.6%draw 2.5%63.9% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Sharks and 15 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Sharks.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Sharks 1613 — 135 points, favouring Sharks
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–0–3Sharks5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Sharks by 8.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Sharks 46–7 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-10-12 | Benetton Treviso 38–10 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-05-11 | Sharks 24–25 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-04-14 | Sharks 43–33 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2022-02-26 | Benetton Treviso 7–29 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.