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Benetton Treviso vs Sharks

What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.

Who wins, and where it is played
Benetton Treviso at home24-24 average
Benetton Treviso 46.5%draw 2.5%51.0% Sharks
Sharks at home33-14 average
Sharks 83.2%draw 2.5%14.3% Benetton Treviso
Neutral ground19-28 average
Benetton Treviso 29.4%draw 2.5%68.1% Sharks

Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.

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How the runs finished

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.

Margin percentiles

  • Middle 8 in 10
  • Middle half
  • Median
  • Level
  • Average

Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Sharks and 16 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 9 Sharks and 7 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.

Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.

Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured

How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Sharks.

Even match50.0%
Rating gap-28.4 pp

Benetton Treviso 1413, Sharks 1746 — 333 points, favouring Sharks

Venue+17.1 pp

Benetton Treviso are at home

Form and context+7.8 pp

Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.

Benetton Treviso win46.5%
Sharks win51.0%
Draw2.5%

Head to head

Benetton Treviso2–0–3Sharks

5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Sharks by 8.4 on average

DateMatchCompetitionVenue
2026-05-09Sharks 46–7 Benetton TrevisoUnited Rugby ChampionshipHollywoodbets Kings Park
2024-10-12Benetton Treviso 38–10 SharksUnited Rugby ChampionshipStadio Comunale di Monigo
2024-05-11Sharks 24–25 Benetton TrevisoUnited Rugby ChampionshipHollywoodbets Kings Park
2023-04-14Sharks 43–33 Benetton TrevisoUnited Rugby ChampionshipHollywoodbets Kings Park
2022-02-26Benetton Treviso 7–29 SharksUnited Rugby ChampionshipStadio Comunale di Monigo

None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.

Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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