Benetton Treviso vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 32.9%draw 2.5%64.6% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 80.1%draw 2.5%17.4% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 24.9%draw 2.5%72.6% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Stade Francais Paris and 13 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 4 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 298 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–0–3Stade Francais Paris5 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Stade Francais Paris by 8.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Benetton Treviso 35–32 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2022-12-09 | Stade Francais Paris 24–14 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2020-12-11 | Stade Francais Paris 20–44 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2015-12-19 | Stade Francais Paris 40–14 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2015-12-12 | Benetton Treviso 17–50 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.