Benetton Treviso vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 42.8%draw 2.5%54.7% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 84.2%draw 2.5%13.3% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 27.3%draw 2.5%70.2% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Francais Paris and 15 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 9 Stade Francais Paris and 7 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 318 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso2–0–3Stade Francais Paris5 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Stade Francais Paris by 8.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Benetton Treviso 35–32 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2022-12-09 | Stade Francais Paris 24–14 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2020-12-11 | Stade Francais Paris 20–44 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2015-12-19 | Stade Francais Paris 40–14 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2015-12-12 | Benetton Treviso 17–50 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.