Benetton Treviso vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 45.8%draw 2.5%51.7% ToulonToulon 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 29.8%draw 2.5%67.7% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Toulon and 16 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 8 Toulon and 7 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 1 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Toulon 1663 — 250 points, favouring Toulon
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso0–0–4Toulon4 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Toulon by 19.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-30 | Toulon 23–0 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2022-04-16 | Toulon 36–17 Benetton Treviso | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2018-01-14 | Toulon 36–0 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2017-10-21 | Benetton Treviso 29–30 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.